Will Montana go Republican in the upcoming election for an open house seat? Recent polling data has revealed that voters may be leaning to the right this time around, and Republican Gianforte is leading over Democrat Quist. Surveys from both May 11 and 12, and May 17 and 18 have consistently shown Gianforte has a 13 point lead. Quist got just 36 percent, while Gianforte has been taking the lead with 49 percent.
Of those polled, just 5 percent were unsure of who they would ultimately vote for. Either way, sources say it looks like Gianforte may just pull off a win.
The seat up for grabs was vacated by Republican Ryan Zinke, who is now heading the interior department under President Trump.
As reported, “While Clinton voters are holding steady for Quist, it is validating to our topline result that Republicans/Trump voters admit to crossing over for Bullock at about the correct rate in the 2016 gubernatorial election, but do not anticipate crossing over for Quist at the same rate now. Further, Independents were about 15 pp higher for Bullock than Gianforte in 2016, but are about evenly divided in the Congressional election. Bullock won by 4 pp and Trump by 22 pp, we are basically anticipating that Quist splits the difference and loses by about 11-12 pp. All our analyses indicate that the race is a long shot for Democrats, as of 05/19.”
Trump won in Montana by 22 percentage points during the election last November, but his approval ratings in the state have been on the decline–though he is still generally in the good graces of Montana citizens.